11 September 2009

9 minute read

Livestock, Poultry and Dairy

Total US meat production for 2009 is raised as higher pork and broiler production more than offset lower beef production. Pork production is raised due to higher third-quarter slaughter at significantly higher weights due to favourable summer weather. Lower corn prices are expected to encourage increased weights through the fall. The broiler production forecast is also raised based on higher third-quarter slaughter. The beef production forecast is reduced on lower expected cow slaughter. Turkey production is unchanged.

Meat production forecasts for 2010 are raised from last month. Higher feedlot placements in late 2009 and early 2010 result in higher beef production while lower prices for corn will support increased broiler meat production and slightly higher hog weights. USDA's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released on 25 September and provide indications of the inventory and sows farrowing moving into 2010.

Red meat export forecasts for 2009 and 2010 are unchanged from last month but estimates for the second quarter of 2009 are adjusted to reflect June trade data. Broiler exports for 2009 are raised reflecting higher-than-expected shipments during July.

Cattle, hog, broiler and turkey price forecasts are lowered for 2009. Weak demand continues to pressure prices. Hog prices are forecast to remain under pressure during 2010, resulting in lower price forecasts. The 2010 price forecast for cattle is lowered for the first quarter; broiler and turkey forecasts are unchanged.

The milk production forecast is raised for 2009 and 2010 as milk per cow is forecast higher. Lower feed costs and plentiful supplies of alfalfa hay into 2010 are expected to support increased feeding of higher quality rations. Imports for 2009 are raised as fat-based product imports have been stronger than expected; the commercial export forecast for 2009 is raised as cheese shipments have been firm. Net removals are adjusted to reflect lower expected sales to CCC in 2009. Class III and IV price forecasts are reduced for 2009 due to weaker butter and whey prices. Cheese and nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices are unchanged. The Class III price forecast for 2010 is unchanged; the Class IV price is reduced due to lower butter and NDM prices. The all milk price is forecast at $12.05 to $12.25 per cwt for 2009 and $14.55 to $15.55 for 2010.

Wheat

The 2009/10 US wheat balance sheet is nearly unchanged this month. A 20-million-bushel increase in domestic soft red winter wheat use is offset by the same size reduction in hard red winter wheat as lower prices relative to corn encourage soft red winter wheat feeding. The 2009/10 marketing-year average farm price is projected at $4.70 to $5.50 per bushel, down 20 cents on the high end of the range. Larger world supplies are expected to keep substantial downward pressure on domestic wheat prices with seasonal post-harvest gains limited by the need to keep US wheat competitive in the world market.

Global wheat supplies for 2009/10 are projected 3.9 million tons higher as a 0.5-million-ton decrease in world beginning stocks is more than offset by a 4.4-million-ton increase in foreign production. Wheat production is raised 2.2 million tons for EU-27 as higher reported production for France, Denmark, and a number of other countries, more than offset reductions for Germany and Poland. Production is raised 1.0 million tons for Russia on higher reported area. Production is raised 0.5 million tons each for Kazakhstan and Ukraine, and 0.3 million tons each for Belarus, Paraguay, and South Africa. Partly offsetting is a 0.5-million-ton reduction for Argentina as continued drought and unseasonable heat limited late seeding and further reduced yield prospects in the central and northern growing areas.

Global wheat imports and exports for 2009/10 are projected slightly lower. Small import reductions for Malaysia, Mexico, Sri Lanka, Venezuela, and Vietnam are partly offset by increases for Algeria and Saudi Arabia. Exports are lowered 0.5 million tons for Argentina as the smaller expected crop reduces competition for US wheat, especially in the Western Hemisphere. Global consumption is raised 0.9 million tons mostly reflecting a 0.5-million-ton increase in Ukraine feeding and a 0.5-million-ton increase in EU-27 food and industrial use. Other changes in projected food use are smaller and mostly offsetting. Global ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected at 186.6 million tons, up 3.0 million from last month and 64.0 million higher than the 28-year low in 2007/08.

Coarse Grains

Higher forecast US corn production this month boosts 2009/10 feed grain supplies; however, increased projections for exports and feed and residual use limit the increase in ending stocks. US corn production is forecast at 13.0 billion bushels, 193 million higher than in August, with higher expected yields throughout most of the Corn Belt. The national average yield is projected at a record 161.9 bushels per acre. US corn supplies for 2009/10 are projected 164 million bushels higher, as lower carryin and imports partly offset the higher production forecast. Beginning stocks are lowered 25 million bushels reflecting higher expected corn use for ethanol in 2008/09 based on record July and August production of gasoline blends with ethanol as reported by the Energy Information Agency. Imports for 2009/10 are projected 5 million bushels lower with a smaller forecast corn crop in Canada.

Total US corn use for 2009/10 is projected at a record 13.0 billion bushels, up 150 million bushels from last month and 980 million bushels higher than in 2008/09. Feed and residual use is raised 50 million bushels based on higher expected production. Exports are raised 100 million bushels with higher projected imports for Canada and lower production in South America. Ending stocks are projected 14 million bushels higher. The 2009/10 marketing-year average farm price is projected lower at $3.05 to $3.65 per bushel, compared with $3.10 to $3.90 per bushel last month.

Sorghum supplies for 2009/10 are nearly unchanged this month with production forecast up 9 million bushels and beginning stocks projected down 10 million bushels based on a 10-million-bushel increase in 2008/09 exports. Projected 2009/10 farm prices for sorghum, barley, and oats are all lowered this month reflecting larger corn supplies and weaker corn prices.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2009/10 are nearly unchanged with a 4.1-million-ton projected increase for the United States offset by declines in foreign countries. Higher foreign coarse grain beginning stocks and increased foreign barley and oats production partly offset a 7.2-million-ton reduction in foreign corn output. Corn production is lowered for China, Brazil, Argentina, Canada, Kenya, and EU-27. China production is lowered 2.5 million tons as yield prospects were reduced by extended summer dryness in western portions of the northeastern growing region. Production for Brazil and Argentina is lowered 2.0 million tons and 1.0 million tons, respectively, as area is projected lower with price incentives encouraging producers to switch to soybeans. Corn production is lowered 0.9 million tons each for Canada and Kenya, and lowered 0.3 million tons for EU-27. Partly offsetting is a 0.4-million-ton increase in the Serbia corn crop.

World coarse grain imports and exports are both projected higher for 2009/10 mostly on higher expected corn trade. Corn imports are raised 1.1 million tons for Canada and 1.0 million tons for Kenya, based on smaller expected production in each country. Corn exports are lowered 1.0 million tons for Argentina and 0.5 million tons for EU-27, but more than offsetting are a 0.3-million-ton increase for Serbia and the 2.5-million-ton increase for the United States. Global coarse grain feeding is raised 3.0 million tons mostly on higher corn feed and residual use in the United States and higher expected barley feeding in the EU-27. Global corn ending stocks are projected 2.4 million tons lower.

Oilseeds

US oilseed ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected at 7.3 million tons, up 0.4 million from last month mostly due to increased soybean stocks. Soybean production is forecast at 3.25 billion bushels, up 46 million based on higher yields. Other oilseeds are up due to higher peanut and cottonseed production. Soybean crush is raised 20 million bushels due to higher projected soybean meal exports. Higher exports from the United States partly offset a sharp decline in projected soybean meal exports for India as a reduced soybean crop limits exportable supplies. Soybean exports are increased 15 million bushels to 1.28 billion reflecting increased supplies and lower projected prices. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 220 million bushels, up 10 million from last month.

Soybean exports for 2008/09 are projected at a record 1.28 billion bushels, up 15 million from last month reflecting exceptionally strong shipments in the final weeks of the marketing year. The increase is offset with lower residual, leaving ending stocks unchanged at 110 million bushels. Other changes for 2008/09 include increased use of soybean oil for biodiesel and reduced soybean meal exports. Season-ending soybean oil stocks are projected at a record high of 3.1 billion pounds.

The US season-average soybean price range for 2009/10 is projected at $8.10 to $10.10 per bushel, down 30 cents on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $250 to $310 per short ton, down $10 on both ends. The soybean oil price range is unchanged at 32 to 36 cents per pound.

Global oilseed production for 2009/10 is projected at 422.8 million tons, up 0.2 million tons from last month. Foreign production is down 1.2 million tons to 326.9 million tons. Global soybean production is projected at a record 243.9 million tons, up 1.9 million as increased production forecasts for the United States and Brazil are partly offset by reductions for China, India, and Canada. Brazil soybean production is projected at 62 million tons, up 2 million from last month due to an increased area projection reflecting favourable soybean prices relative to corn. China soybean production is reduced 0.4 million tons to 15 million based on lower yields resulting from untimely dry conditions in northeastern growing areas. India soybean production is reduced 1 million tons to 9 million due to reduced harvested area and lower yields. A late start to planting resulted in lower-than-expected area sown. Lower yields are projected due to a period of dryness in late July and early August. Global rapeseed production is almost unchanged as lower production for Canada is offset by higher production for EU-27. The EU-27 crop benefitted from record yields in France. Other changes include reduced peanut and cottonseed production for India and increased sunflower seed production for Kazakhstan.

Global oilseed trade for 2009/10 is raised 0.7 million tons to 91.8 million. Increased soybean imports for China account for most of the change. Global oilseed stocks are projected higher mainly due to higher soybean stocks in China and the United States, which are only partly offset by lower stocks in Argentina and India. China soybean imports for 2008/09 are raised to a record 39.8 million tons.

Sugar

Projected 2009/10 US sugar supply is increased 135,000 short tons, raw value, from last month. Ending stocks are increased 55,000 tons, sugar production is decreased 250,000 tons, and imports are increased 330,000 tons. The decrease in sugar production is based on lower forecast production of US sugarbeet and Florida sugarcane. The increase in 2009/10 imports comes from Mexico as a result of continued incentives to export to the US market. Projected sugar use is unchanged from last month. Ending stocks are increased to 844,000 tons, which is down 35 per cent from a year earlier.

Projected 2009/10 Mexico sugar supply is increased 85,000 metric tons, raw value, from last month. Higher beginning stocks more than offset lower imports. Imports are lowered in line with the portion of the recently announced import quotas expected to enter the United States in 2009/10. Exports are raised 300,000 tons and ending stocks are lowered 215,000 tons.

Estimated 2008/09 Mexico sugar supply is increased 175,000 tons. Beginning stocks are increased 360,000 tons to reflect Mexico's official estimates. Imports are lowered 185,000 tons to 215,000 tons, accounting for 100,000 tons of assigned import quota and 115,000 tons of imports from US refiners. Exports are lowered 70,000 tons due to reduced prospects in the remaining months of the fiscal year.

Further Reading

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