8 November 2024

9 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

North America

Asia

Weekly USDA U.S. beef, pork export sales

Beef: Net sales of 8,000 MT for 2024--a marketing-year low--were down 43 percent from the previous week and 45 from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for South Korea (2,100 MT, including decreases of 800 MT), Japan (2,000 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Canada (1,200 MT), Mexico (1,000 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Taiwan (600 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), were offset by reductions for Vietnam (300 MT). Net sales of 2,300 MT for 2025 were reported for Mexico (2,200 MT) and Japan (100 MT). Exports of 14,400 MT were down 9 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to South Korea (4,100 MT), Japan (3,100 MT), China (2,000 MT), Mexico (1,200 MT), and Taiwan (900 MT).

Pork: Net sales reductions of 14,700 MT for 2024--a marketing-year low--were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Japan (2,300 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), South Korea (2,100 MT, including decreases of 2,900 MT), Panama (200 MT), the Dominican Republic (200 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), and Nicaragua (100 MT), were more than offset by reductions primarily for Mexico (7,700 MT), China (5,000 MT), Australia (2,900 MT), Colombia (1,500 MT), and Canada (1,100 MT). Net sales of 200 MT for 2025 were reported for South Korea (100 MT) and Vietnam (100 MT). Exports of 35,000 MT were up 8 percent from the previous week and 16 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (12,900 MT), Japan (4,200 MT), China (3,600 MT), South Korea (3,300 MT), and Colombia (2,700 MT).

China’s meat imports continue to slow

China imported 535,000 MT of meat during October, down 1.1% from September and 3.1% less than year-ago. Through the first 10 months of this year, China imported 5.475 MMT of meat, down 12.5% from the same period last year.

First round of mandatory milk testing in northern Utah identified bird flu infections in eight dairy herds

That’s according to the Utah Department of Agriculture and Food last week. Utah is the 15th state to report the avian flu virus in dairy cattle since the disease was first identified in herds in Texas in March.

California dairy farmers face escalating avian flu outbreak

Dairy farmers in California are contending with a worsening avian flu outbreak that has impacted over 170 herds since late August, representing nearly half of all U.S. cases in dairy cows since March. As California leads the nation in milk production, the flu's continued spread raises concerns about potential shortages, despite no current disruptions. The issue remains sensitive, with many farmers hesitant to discuss it publicly but acknowledging its significance, according to a Bloomberg article

First case of H5N1 bird flu in swine confirmed at Oregon backyard farm

USDA's APHIS and Oregon state officials are investigating a backyard farm where H5N1 avian influenza was detected in poultry and, for the first time, in one of five pigs. Despite no signs of illness, the swine tested positive, and all were euthanized. Shared resources may have facilitated cross-species transmission. The farm has been quarantined, but USDA reassures there is no risk to the U.S. pork supply, and genomic sequencing shows no increased human transmissibility. The National Pork Producers Council emphasized that there are no safety concerns about U.S. pork supply, noting the pork industry has worked with USDA’s APHIS since 2009 to monitor for swine flu. “The entire pork industry remains committed to safeguarding food safety and human and animal health,” NPPC CEO Bryan Humphreys said in a statement. The pigs on the Oregon farm were not intended for the commercial food supply, USDA said.

Of note: Pigs represent a particular concern for the spread of bird flu because they can become co-infected with bird and human viruses, which could swap genes to form a new, more dangerous virus that can more easily infect humans.

The case was one factor that drove the USDA to broaden its bird flu surveillance to include nationwide bulk milk testing, which the agency announced on Wednesday, USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack told Reuters in an interview (see next item). "While it’s a different variation of the virus and it is tied to wild birds, it is a factor to make sure that we understand and appreciate exactly where the virus is in dairy" and in cattle, he said.

The detection is a warning for pig farmers to be on the lookout for further infections, said Marie Culhane, a professor of veterinary population medicine at the University of Minnesota who has researched flu viruses in swine. "People need to start increasing their plans to deal with it if it should happen in another herd and another herd," Culhane said. "Pigs are just really good at picking up influenza viruses."

USDA expands HPAI testing in dairy to enhance biosecurity

USDA’s APHIS is rolling out a tiered strategy to collect milk samples for detecting H5N1 avian influenza. The plan aims to strengthen biosecurity, guide containment efforts, and protect farm workers exposed to infected animals. Bulk milk will initially be tested regionally, with further farm-level sampling as necessary. USDA will collaborate with state and private veterinarians, maintaining testing requirements for cattle before interstate movement to curb virus spread. Two vaccine candidates for dairy cows are also in field trials.

Weekly USDA dairy report

CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (11/1) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $2.6700 The weekly average for Grade AA is $2.6895 (+0.0080). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.8675 and 40# blocks at $1.8375. The weekly average for barrels is $1.8825 (-0.0260) and blocks $1.8725 (-0.0375). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.3775. The weekly average for Grade A is $1.3805 (+0.0120). DRY WHEY: Extra grade dry whey closed at $0.6050. The weekly average for dry whey is $0.6050 (+0.0015).

BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: East region stakeholders indicate butter demand is light from the retail sector and lighter than anticipated from the food service sector. Central region stakeholders indicate butter demand is steady from the retail sector and mixed from the food service sector. West region stakeholders indicate demand from both sectors is steady. Cream volumes are widely available. Some butter plant managers are unable to take on spot loads being offered to them. Although some plant downtime is being reported, production schedules are generally either steady or strong throughout the country. Bulk butter overages range from minus 5 to 8 cents above market, across all regions.

CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Cheese production varies from steady to stronger throughout the U.S. In the East, cheese plant managers relay steady production schedules. Contacts note food service demand for cheese is down, while retail demand is steady. Cheesemakers in the Central region share mixed cheese demand. Some cheesemakers share demand has been strong to the point they have oversold. Other contacts note customer hesitation due to recent cheese price fluctuation. Milk availability is somewhat tight, with spot milk prices reported at $0.50 to $3.00 above Class III in the Central region. In the West, contacts share cheese production ranges from steady to stronger. Despite tighter milk availability in the Southwest, contacts share milk volumes are adequate to meet current production needs.

FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: Overall milk production is steady to stronger across the country. In some warmer states in the Southeast and throughout the Midwest, fluid numbers are steady. Farm level milk is gradually ticking up in the Northeast, Arizona, and New Mexico. Larger gains in production are being seen in the mountain states and the Pacific Northwest. The better numbers are being attributed to cooler temperatures and improved cow comfort. However, some California farmers are experiencing herd health issues, contributing to the state seeing weaker volumes at the farm level. Some contacts say component percentages are currently in line with spring flush levels. The availability of spot loads of milk is tight across the nation. Spot milk prices reported by Central Class III manufacturers ranged from $.50 to $3-over Class. Class I and Class III milk demand remains steady going into the holiday season. Class I bottling still pulls significant amounts of milk, and some Class III processors are making as much cheese they can with the available milk. Cream availability is sizeable, and users say it is likely to remain that way for the rest of the year. Demand for cream is broadening as the holidays near. More cream is shifting from Class IV to Class III as cream cheese processors begin to increase production. Condensed skim availability is steady in the West and stronger in the Central and East regions. Demand for condensed skim is steady nationally. Cream multiples for all Classes range 1.20-1.36 in the East, 1.10-1.30 in the Midwest, and 1.00-1.26 in the West.

DRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: Low/medium heat nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices were steady to higher. Domestic demand is steady to slightly stronger according to Western contacts. Dry buttermilk prices were mixed. Spot loads of dry buttermilk are tighter in all regions. Dry whole milk prices moved lower on lighter spot market demand. Dry whey prices ticked steady to higher throughout the country. Brand preferred volumes of whey are very tight, as processors continue to put more resources into processing high protein concentrations. Whey protein concentrate 34% prices continued their recently bullish run this week on steady demand and short supplies. Lactose prices were steady this week, while 2025 contractual talks are ongoing. Acid casein prices were mixed this week, while rennet casein prices shifted lower.

ORGANIC HIGHLIGHTS: An October 21 notice released by the USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) highlighted work done by the Market News organization to expand collection and distribution of organic agricultural products. The Pennsylvania and Vermont Monthly Organic Dairy Reports covering August 2024 were released on November 1, 2024, and showed the weighted average price for fluid milk increased in both states compared to July 2024. The USDA AMS recently announced the Organic Dairy Product Promotion (ODPP) program which intends to increase organic dairy product access for educational institutions and youth programs. The week 44 retail ad survey contained more organic dairy ads than the week 43 survey. Every organic dairy commodity found in last week's survey, except butter, appeared in more ads this week. The most advertised organic dairy commodity in week 44 was yogurt. Cheese, the second most advertised organic dairy commodity, saw the largest percentage growth in organic dairy ads from last week.

NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: Total conventional dairy advertisements decreased by 7 percent while total organic dairy ads increased by 151 percent. Conventional ice cream in 48-64-ounce containers was the most advertised dairy product. Sliced cheese in 6-8 ounce packages was the second most advertised conventional dairy item, with a weighted average advertised price of $2.66, unchanged from the week prior. Greek yogurt in 4-6-ounce containers was the most advertised conventional yogurt product. Half gallon containers of conventional milk had a weighted average advertised price of $1.55, down from $2.33 last week.