10 January 2025

11 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

North America

Asia

USDA expands H5N1 dairy testing

USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service announced 15 additional states have joined the National Milk Testing Strategy (NMTS), bringing the total to 28 states, covering nearly 65% of U.S. milk production. New states include Alabama, Arizona, Delaware, Iowa, Georgia, Kansas, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, Nevada, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Utah and Virginia. Currently, 11 states are in Stage 2 of the NMTS, operating state-level bulk tank sampling programs, while California is in Stage 3 with rapid response measures for affected areas. Over 110,000 samples have been tested by USDA laboratories, including milk from multiple herds and samples from wild and domestic animals, underscoring the breadth of surveillance efforts.

USDA expands livestock import restrictions amid New World Screwworm threat as Mexican border reopening nears

Reports say the U.S. is expected to reopen the border to Mexican cattle imports the week of Jan. 20. Meanwhile, USDA intensified its livestock import restrictions due to the growing presence of New World Screwworm (NWS) in Central America. Following a confirmed case in Belize on Dec. 26, 2024, USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) suspended livestock imports from the country. Exceptions include dogs with health certificates and horses meeting strict treatment and quarantine conditions. This marks the latest measure in a broader regional response to the resurgence of NWS, which has affected several Central American nations since 2023, including Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala and Mexico.

USDA expands livestock import restrictions amid screwworm threat

USDA intensified its livestock import restrictions due to the growing presence of New World Screwworm (NWS) in Central America. Following a confirmed case in Belize on Dec. 26, 2024, the USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) suspended livestock imports from the country. This marks the latest measure in a broader regional response to the resurgence of NWS, which has affected several Central American nations since 2023, including Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, and Mexico.

• Belize restrictions: Livestock imports from Belize are suspended. Exceptions include dogs with health certificates and horses meeting strict treatment and quarantine conditions.
• Regional impact: The spread of NWS represents a significant breach of the biological barrier that contained the pest in South America for decades.
• Previous actions: In November 2024, live cattle imports from Mexico were suspended after a confirmed NWS case, and as noted will resumed later this month with enhanced protocols.

NWS larvae infest open wounds, feeding on living livestock tissue

This is posing severe risks to livestock, wildlife, and humans. USDA is maintaining heightened biosecurity measures to prevent the reintroduction of this pest, eradicated in the U.S. in 1966, while educating stakeholders about detection and prevention strategies.

Brazil’s beef market: Key trends for 2025

Brazil's beef industry is poised for significant expansion in 2025, driven by a 30.4% export surge in 2024, according to the National Agriculture and Livestock Confederation (CNA). With R$13 billion (approximately $2.10 billion) in revenue last year, the sector aims to further capture Asian markets, including Japan, Vietnam, Turkey, and South Korea, which account for 30% of global beef consumption. Key trade agreements with these countries are in advanced stages, though some hurdles remain, particularly with South Korea.

Domestically, the industry will benefit from newly enacted tax reforms, exempting beef from taxes under Brazil's staple food basket program. This reform aligns with President Lula's campaign promise to lower beef prices, ensuring greater accessibility for Brazilian consumers, who account for 75% of the country’s beef consumption.

Forecast: With robust infrastructure, favorable livestock cycles, and strategic reforms, Brazil's beef market is set to achieve a projected 6.2% growth in 2025, reaching R$453.3 billion ($74.62 billion) in production.

First US death from bird flu reported in Louisiana

A Louisiana resident over 65 with underlying health conditions has become the first confirmed fatality from bird flu (H5N1) in the United States, state health officials announced Monday. The patient contracted the virus after exposure to a backyard flock and wild birds. Health experts emphasize that the risk of person-to-person transmission remains low. Dr. Diego Diel of Cornell University advises avoiding contact with sick animals and wild birds.

CDC statement: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said in a statement that the event, while tragic, does not change its position on the current risk posed by the virus. “CDC has carefully studied the available information about the person who died in Louisiana and continues to assess that the risk to the general public remains low,” the CDC said in a statement.

The CDC noted mutations in the virus samples from the patient, raising concerns about the virus’s potential to adapt for human transmission. These changes were not seen in viruses from the birds in the person’s backyard flock, a fact that the CDC said likely means they developed in the individual, during the course of the infection.

The virus that sickened the Louisiana patient is related to a version of bird flu recently found in wild birds and poultry in the United States and in people in British Columbia, Canada and Washington state, according to the CDC. It is different from the version of the virus associated with a widespread outbreak in dairy cows, some poultry outbreaks and a few other human cases in the United States.

The outbreak, which has also impacted wild birds and livestock, continues to pose public health challenges. Experts warn of heightened risks during the current severe flu season, particularly if individuals contract both bird flu and seasonal flu simultaneously.

The fatality follows a year in which 66 cases of H5N1 were reported in the US, primarily among farmworkers. Most cases have been mild, primarily affecting farmworkers exposed to sick poultry or dairy cows. Globally, about 500 deaths from the virus have been recorded in the past two decades. Since the start of 2020 through Nov. 1, 78 confirmed human cases of H5N1 had been reported globally to the World Health Organization, resulting in nine deaths.

Currently, bird flu vaccines for humans are not available to the public but are being stockpiled as a precaution. The U.S. government has asked CSL Seqirus to produce 4.8 million doses, adding to an existing stockpile. However, experts caution that if the virus mutates to spread between humans, a new vaccine would likely be needed. The CDC does not recommend immunizing farmworkers, as infections so far have been mild, according to Nirav Shah, the agency's principal deputy director.

USDA is looking into a potential H5N1 vaccine for cows, said Eric Deeble, acting senior adviser for H5N1 response. The agency has approved several field safety trials for vaccines designed to protect cows from the bird flu.

As of Jan. 6, 917 cow herds across 16 states have tested positive for bird flu. California, the biggest U.S. milk producer, declared a state of emergency to help expedite a response as the outbreak sweeps through its dairy herds.

US egg prices skyrocket amid bird flu crisis, setting new records

Midwest egg prices hit $6.07 per dozen, breaking the previous record of $5.46 from December 2022. Eggs remain a key marker for food inflation and economic trends. Avian flu outbreaks and holiday demand have tightened supply, leading to soaring prices and reports of shortages. Some stores are limiting purchases as the situation persists. The bird flu response may face further challenges under a second Trump administration.

China: Safeguard investigation on imported beef

On December 27, the People's Republic of China (PRC) Ministry of Commerce Trade Remedy Investigation Bureau announced a safeguard investigation on global beef imports following a petition by the China Animal Agriculture Association (CAAA) and nine provincial animal agriculture associations. The investigation covers fresh, chilled, and frozen beef products classified under specific HTS codes, valued at $14.2 billion in 2023. Interested parties have 20 days from the date of publication to register or comment. This report provides unofficial translations of the initiation announcement and safeguard investigation application attachments.

Weekly USDA dairy report

CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (1/3) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $2.5525. The weekly average for Grade AA is $2.5544 (-0.0150). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.8300 and 40# blocks at $1.9200. The weekly average for barrels is $1.8219(+0.0719) and blocks $1.9131 (+0.0518). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.3675. The weekly average for Grade A is $1.3738 (-0.0150). DRY WHEY: Extra grade dry whey closed at $0.7500. The weekly average for dry whey is $0.7500 (+0.0075).

BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Across the nation, cream volumes have continued to be abundant into the start of the New Year. Contacts say they don’t expect cream availability to tighten this quarter, and this is favorable for processors. Butter makers have been running lighter schedules over the past couple of weeks due to the mid-week holidays. Plant managers say they expect to return to regular schedules as workers come back from leave. Industry contacts say butter is available. Inventories are steady in the East, while Central and West inventories are reported as slightly lighter due to slower holiday production. Demand for butter in the East and Central regions is steady. West contacts are seeing mixed butter demand.

CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Milk is available for cheese production throughout the country, but cheesemakers say the end of year holidays contributed to lighter production schedules. In the Central region, reported spot milk prices this week ranged from $7 to $0.50-under Class. Spot loads of cheese are available for purchasing in the East, but inventories are snug. Contacts in the West report some varieties of cheese are available for spot purchasing, while others are more difficult to obtain. The end of year holidays contributed to mixed cheese demand in the Central region. Retail demand for cheese is strong in the East, but food service sales are mixed. In the West, stakeholders say domestic demand is strong and export interest is lighter.

FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: As the winter holidays pass by, dairy cows continue to produce without pause. Contacts report farm level milk production is steady to improving in the United States. Steady milk volumes are being reported in the East and Central regions while volumes are improving in the West. Class I demand slowed nationwide in December while schools paused between semesters. Processors say demand has yet to pick up in the East and Central regions, but it is expected to be picking up steam in the West soon. Demand from Class III processors is steady in the East and Central regions. Central spot milk prices this week were reported as low as $7-under Class III up to $.50 under Class. Contacts noted that both protein and milkfat levels were at strong levels through the end of 2024. Cream availability continues to build up in the United States. Spot cream is available in all corners of the country. East cream is finding Class II end users as well as into churns. Central cream handlers are working to find end users, and some cream is traveling further to find them. Cream multiples for all Classes range 0.75-1.20 in the East, 0.70-1.20 in the Midwest, and 0.70-1.20 in the West. Spot loads of condensed skim are accessible, but demand is light as end users are harder to find during a holiday week.

DRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: The second consecutive holiday week brought on generally quiet markets this week. However, there were a few price changes in some commodities. Low/medium heat nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices were stable across the country. Supplies are generally snug, but demand notes are uncertain moving into Q1. Dry buttermilk prices moved higher in the Central and East, while West dry buttermilk prices were static. Dry buttermilk stocks are tight, but demand notes are generally quiet. Dry whole milk prices moved higher. Despite generally available spot dry whole milk volumes, availability is viewed as tightening. Dry whey prices moved higher in the East, while holding steady in the Central and West regions. Dry whey markets are viewed as bullish moving into 2025. Whey protein concentrate 34% prices are ticking higher as higher whey protein concentrate markets continue to pull solids away from whey protein concentrate 34%. Lactose prices are steady to lower on slower domestic and international trading activity. Rennet and acid casein prices were unchanged this week.

INTERNATIONAL DAIRY MARKET NEWS

EUROPE: Annual statistics released by the European Commission indicate milk prices in 2024 were lower than in 2023 in 16 EU countries. The sharpest rates of decline were in Finland, Portugal, and Spain. Countries that saw the sharpest rates of increase in milk prices were in Ireland, Lithuania, and Latvia. The European Commission Combined Drought Indicator details critical to severe drought conditions persist in the Balkans and the Black Sea regions. Pockets of western Russia are under drought watch due to precipitation deficits.

NOTICE: On December 6, 2024, the United States Department of Agriculture issued a new Federal Order, requiring that unpasteurized milk samples nationwide be collected and shared with USDA for testing. This new guidance aims to facilitate comprehensive H5N1 surveillance of the nation’s milk supply and dairy herds. The full press release can be found at https://www.usda.gov/media/pre... releases/2024/12/06/usda-announces-new-federal-order-begins national-milk-testing.

NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: The total number of conventional dairy ads increased in the first retail ad survey of 2025, and the number of organic ads was also up. Cheese remained most advertised conventional dairy commodity in this week’s survey, despite appearing in fewer ads. The most advertised organic commodity in this week’s retail survey was milk. In this week’s retail ad survey, the number of ads for both conventional and organic yogurt increased. Total ads for conventional ice cream grew in week 1. There were no ads for organic ice cream present in this week’s retail survey.