25 April 2025

12 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

North America

Asia

Weekly USDA US beef, pork export sales

Beef: Net sales of 10,300 MT for 2025 were down 41 percent from the previous week and 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for South Korea (3,200 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Japan (1,900 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Hong Kong (1,300 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Canada (1,300 MT), and Taiwan (1,100 MT, including decreases of 200 MT). Exports of 13,200 MT were down 10 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to South Korea (4,900 MT), Japan (3,400 MT), Taiwan (1,200 MT), Mexico (1,000 MT), and Canada (900 MT).

Pork: Net sales of 5,800 MT for 2025--a marketing-year low--were down 72 percent from the previous week and 82 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Japan (6,300 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Mexico (3,800 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), South Korea (1,800 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Colombia (1,600 MT), and Canada (1,200 MT), were offset by reductions for China (12,000 MT) and Denmark (100 MT). Exports of 27,100 MT were down 12 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (10,200 MT), South Korea (4,700 MT), Japan (4,600 MT), Colombia (1,900 MT), and Canada (1,000 MT).

Mexican cattle imports into the United States by month in 2025 (post-New World Screwworm situation)

Following the detection of New World screwworm in southern Mexico, the United States halted imports of Mexican cattle from Nov. 22, 2024, until Jan. 31, 2025. Imports resumed in early February 2025 under a new, stricter inspection and treatment protocol at select ports of entry.

Insight into the monthly pattern and scale of imports since the resumption:

• January 2025: No imports due to the border closure.
• February 2025: Imports resumed at a limited scale, primarily through the Santa Teresa (New Mexico) and Douglas (Arizona) ports of entry. The volume was significantly below normal due to the phased reopening and new protocols.
• March 2025: Data from the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) indicates that, for the week ending March 7, 2025, a total of 14,800 Mexican feeder cattle crossed into the U.S. through Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas. Extrapolating from this weekly figure, March imports were likely between 50,000 and 60,000 head, still below typical pre-screwworm levels.
• April 2025: Imports continued to recover but remained below previous years. USDA’s Economic Research Service notes that feeder cattle imports from Mexico were down 75% year-over-year in the first two months, with volumes expected to improve in the following months but still project annual totals below last year.

USDA and industry analysts forecast that total Mexican cattle exports to the U.S. in 2025 will decline by about 17% from 2024, to approximately 1 million head for the year.

Historically, imports peak in spring and late fall, with February–April accounting for a significant share of annual imports. However, the 2025 pattern is atypical due to the early-year suspension and phased reopening.

One industry forecast has year-to-date total imports at 154,912 (-276,046 from 2024; -64%). An average of 20K head/week for the rest of the year would be 861K head, down 400K from 2024.

USDA reauthorizes dairy forward pricing program through 2025

USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service has reauthorized the Dairy Forward Pricing Program (DFPP), which had expired in September 2024. Under the final rule published in the Federal Register, milk handlers can now enter DFPP contracts through September 30, 2025. These contracts will remain valid until September 30, 2028. The program, revived under the American Relief Act of 2025, permits negotiated pricing for non-fluid milk classes (II, III, IV) under the Federal Milk Marketing Order system, excluding Class I (fluid) milk.

Tyson, Clemens, Triumph settle pork price-fixing suit for $64 million; Agri Stats still fighting charges

Tyson Foods, Clemens Foods, and Triumph Foods have agreed to a combined $64 million settlement in a pork price-fixing lawsuit filed by food service providers. Tyson will pay $50 million, Clemens $10 million, and Triumph $4 million. This settlement pushes the total payout in the case to over $180 million. All three firms denied wrongdoing. Triumph, the only company to issue a statement, emphasized it had increased supply during the period in question and believed it would have prevailed at trial. The plaintiffs continue to pursue claims against Agri Stats, a consulting firm accused of facilitating the exchange of sensitive, non-public data to coordinate pricing — an allegation the firm denies.

Hong Kong suspends some U.S. poultry meat imports due to HPAI

Hong Kong suspended imports of poultry meat from Franklin County, Pennsylvania after an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). The country also suspended poultry meat imports from the Rawicki District of Wielkopolskie Region in Poland due to HPAI.

US beef plants continue to slow slaughter runs

Beef packers are expected to slaughter roughly 565,000 head of cattle this week, the fourth straight week of historically low numbers for April and the smallest for this week since 2015. Cattle feeders have also slowed turnover rates to a record low, pushing up slaughter weights as they try to take advantage of high cash prices by adding more pounds to carcasses.

US livestock slaughter: 2024 summary

Summary Total Red Meat Production Up 1 Percent from 2023

Total red meat production for the United States totaled 55.0 billion pounds in 2024, 1 percent higher than the previous year. Red meat includes beef, veal, pork, and lamb and mutton. Red meat production in commercial plants totaled 54.9 billion pounds. On-farm slaughter totaled 91.0 million pounds.

Beef production totaled 27.0 billion pounds, up slightly from the previous year. Veal production totaled 45.3 million pounds, down 14 percent from last year. Pork production, at 27.8 billion pounds, was 2 percent above the previous year. Lamb and mutton production totaled 139 million pounds, up 3 percent from 2023. Commercial cattle slaughter during 2024 totaled 31.8 million head, down 3 percent from 2023, with federal inspection comprising 98.2 percent of the total. The average live weight was 1,399 pounds, up 34 pounds from a year ago.

Steers comprised 48.6 percent of the total federally inspected cattle slaughter, heifers 32.0 percent, dairy cows 8.7 percent, other cows 9.1 percent, and bulls 1.6 percent. Commercial calf slaughter totaled 211,900 head, 28 percent lower than a year ago with 96.0 percent under federal inspection. The average live weight was 323 pounds, up 43 pounds from a year earlier.

Commercial hog slaughter totaled 130 million head, 1 percent higher than 2023 with 99.5 percent of the hogs slaughtered under federal inspection. The average live weight was up 1 pound from last year, at 288 pounds. Barrows and gilts comprised 97.3 percent of the total federally inspected hog slaughter.

Commercial sheep and lamb slaughter, at 2.21 million head, was up 2 percent from the previous year with federal inspection comprising 86.7 percent of the total. The average live weight was unchanged from 2023 at 119 pounds. Lambs and yearlings comprised 93.3 percent of the total federally inspected sheep slaughter.

There were 1,089 plants slaughtering under federal inspection on January 1, 2025 compared with 1,012 last year. Of these, 911 plants slaughtered at least one head of cattle during 2024 with the 12 largest plants slaughtering 51 percent of the total cattle killed. Hogs were slaughtered at 763 plants, with the 15 largest plants accounting for 64 percent of the total. For calves, 4 of the 140 plants accounted for 71 percent of the total and 4 of the 664 plants that slaughtered sheep or lambs in 2024 comprised 37 percent of the total head. Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, and Texas accounted for 50 percent of the United States commercial red meat production in 2024, up 1 percent from 2023.

USDA Secretary Rollins Statement on dairy industry voluntarily removing artificial colors from National School Lunch Program

U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins applauded the International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA) announcement on the IDFA Healthy Dairy in Schools Commitment, a voluntary, proactive pledge to eliminate Red 3, Red 40, Green 3, Blue 1, Blue 2, Yellow 5, and Yellow 6 in milk, cheese, and yogurt products sold to K-12 schools for the National School Lunch and Breakfast Programs beginning during the 2026-2027 school year.

“America’s dairy farmers and milk processors have always led the way in providing our families and schoolchildren with healthy, nutritious, and delicious milk products. While I look forward to getting whole milk back into our schools, today’s announcement shows how the dairy industry is voluntarily driving change and giving consumers what they want, without government mandates,” said Secretary Brooke Rollins. “I thank IDFA and the dairy industry for leading the way and look forward to other industries thinking about how together, we can Make America Healthy Again.”

FDA halts dairy testing program amid staff shortages: Reuters

The FDA has suspended its proficiency testing program for fluid milk and other dairy products due to reduced staffing at its food safety and nutrition division, Reuters reports. An internal agency email revealed that the Moffett Center Proficiency Testing Lab can no longer support laboratory testing or data analysis. The program ensured accuracy and consistency across U.S. food safety labs. The FDA is also pausing other initiatives, including bird flu testing in dairy and pathogen surveillance in food, as it reassesses capacity for the next fiscal year.

China’s pork import decline in March

China imported 90,000 MT of pork during March, down 1.2% from year-ago. For the first three months of the year, China imported 280,000 MT of pork, up 7.5% from the same period last year.

China’s Q1 pork output rises 1.2%

China’s pork output rose 1.2% from year-ago in the first quarter to 16.02 MMT. A total of 194.76 million hogs were slaughtered from January to March, a 0.1% increase from the same period last year. Typically, pork output rises in the first quarter due to increased hog slaughter ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. But the sector remains under pressure, with oversupply and slow demand continuing to weigh on prices and profits. Authorities have taken steps to curb oversupply, as Beijing in 2024 lowered the national target for normal retention of breeding sows to 39 million head from 41 million.

Weekly USDA dairy report

CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (4/17) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $2.3425. The weekly average for Grade AA is $2.3450 (+0.0245). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.8400 and 40# blocks at $1.8350. The weekly average for barrels is $1.8638 (+0.1053) and blocks $1.8075 (+0.0945). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.1725. The weekly average for Grade A is $1.1688 (+0.0083). DRY WHEY: Extra grade dry whey closed at $0.4825. The weekly average for dry whey is $0.4744 (-0.0086).

BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: For week 16, mixed domestic butter demand is reported for both the retail and food service sectors. Some butter sellers note food service demand to be down compared to the same time last year. Demand for butter from international buyers is strong. Cream volumes are steadily available for butter manufacturers. Butter production is seasonally strong. However, churning activity is more mixed this week with the holiday weekend. Butter inventories are generally increasing. Bulk butter overages range from 7 cents below to 5 cents above market, across all regions.

CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Contacts in the East region share cheese production has increased as milk availability grows. Domestic demand for cheese is steady ahead of spring holidays. Some contacts suggest cheese inventories are able to meet end user needs despite lower natural cheese stocks year over year. Cheesemakers in the Central region relay stronger demand than in recent weeks. Retail cheddar and Italian style cheesemakers, as well as curd manufacturers, note stronger production schedules ahead of spring and summer demands. Cheese barrel manufacturers say demand has steadied somewhat, but production is slated to increase in the near term. Spot milk prices range from $6 under to $1 under Class III ahead of the holiday weekend. In the West region, cheese production schedules range from steady to lighter. Buyers relay spot load availability for some cheese varieties is tighter than for others.

FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: Milk output is growing in the East and Central regions as spring flush sets in. California milk output remains strong, but there were some reports that flush may be at peak or just beyond peak output in the Golden State, and other farmers/processors in states throughout the West region are reporting robust milk volumes. Bottling activity is steady. One note of interest is that Class I contacts are already suggesting scaling down in preparation for school district breaks over the next few weeks. Central region contacts reported spot milk prices ranging from $6-under to $1-under Class III. Condensed skim availability has ballooned in recent weeks. Cream availability has grown moving into the spring holiday weekend, but recent demand from ice cream, other Class II manufacturers, and cream cheese producers has seasonally picked up. Cream multiples ranged from 1.00 to 1.20 in the East, .85 to 1.14 in the Central, and .82 to 1.10 in the West regions.

DRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: Low/medium heat nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices were steady in the Central and East regions, while they met bearish pressure in the West. Trading activity, on the whole, has slowed down. Condensed skim is noted as widely accessible, and processors are generally busy, outside of upcoming holiday related downtime. Dry buttermilk prices were depressed this week in both the Central and East, while prices were lower to steady in the West region. Dry buttermilk availability is ample in the Central region, while contacts say condensed buttermilk volumes have increased. Dry whey prices were mixed. In the Central region, prices were higher to steady, while they shifted steady to lower in the West. Dry whey trading activity has slowed, as buyers are hesitant to add to inventories on an unstable market outlook, while sellers are reluctant to offload volumes at decreasing values. Lactose and whey protein concentrate 34% prices moved higher this week on somewhat quiet market activity. Dry whole milk and rennet casein prices were unchanged, while acid casein prices moved higher on an uptick in importing interest.

ORGANIC DAIRY MARKET NEWS: The Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) reported February 2025 estimated fluid product sales. The U.S. sale of total organic milk products was 241 million pounds, up 2.8 percent from the previous year. From the start of the year through February the U.S. sale of total products was 517 million pounds, and up 4.8 percent year-to-date. Organic whole milk sales, 128 million pounds, rose 6.9 percent compared to a year earlier and increased 8.7 percent year-to-date. Reduced fat milk (2%) sales were 80 million pounds, up 5.5 percent from the previous year and up 6.9 percent year-to-date. Fat free milk (skim) sales, 10 million pounds, decreased 9.5 percent from the previous year, and declined 6.9 percent year-to-date.

NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: Total conventional dairy advertisements increased by 9 percent and total organic dairy ads increased by 138 percent. Conventional ice cream in 48-64-ounce containers was the most advertised dairy product, with a weighted average advertised price of $4.30, up from $3.72 the week before. Conventional butter in one-pound packages was the second most advertised dairy product, with a weighted average advertised price of $3.90, down from $4.19 the week prior.