7 March 2025

14 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

Europe

South America

North America

Weekly USDA export sales for US beef, pork

Beef: Net US export sales of 13,400 MT for 2025 were down 27 percent from the previous week and 31 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for South Korea (3,300 MT, including decreases of 1,500 MT), Japan (2,900 MT, including decreases of 900 MT), China (2,500 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Taiwan (2,100 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), and Mexico (1,000 MT, including decreases of 500 MT). Exports of 13,200 MT were down 11 percent from the previous week and 17 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Japan (3,800 MT), South Korea (3,400 MT), China (2,300 MT), Mexico (1,300 MT), and Taiwan (800 MT).

Pork: Net US export sales of 42,400 MT for 2025 were up 32 percent from the previous week and 27 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Mexico (21,800 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), China (11,300 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Japan (3,200 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Colombia (1,900 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and South Korea (1,300 MT, including decreases of 700 MT), were offset by reductions for Canada (100 MT). Exports of 32,200 MT were down 6 percent from the previous week and 3 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (13,500 MT), Japan (4,200 MT), South Korea (4,200 MT), China (3,000 MT), and Colombia (2,000 MT).

US beef and pork exports bolster corn, soybean markets

In 2024, U.S. pork and beef exports reached $19.1 billion, bolstering the corn and soybean industries despite a challenging year for producers. An independent study by the Juday Group, released by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), highlighted that beef and pork exports contributed $2.24 billion to corn, $525 million to distiller’s dried grains with solubles (DDGS) and $1.12 billion to soybeans. The study emphasizes how red meat exports drive value back to producers, with beef and pork exports accounting for 525.1 million bu. of corn and 100.7 million bu. of soybeans used in 2024.

Brazilian beef's potential reentry poses challenge to US in Japanese market

Brazil is negotiating with Japan to restart beef exports after a ban in 2012 due to Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE). According to Southern Ag Today, despite Brazil's previous negligible market share, its return could disrupt US beef exports to Japan, a vital market where US beef currently leads with 43% of total imports. Brazil’s robust export capacity may enable it to compete in Japan, particularly if it can match the quality of U.S. beef.

USDA reports on Mexico poultry industry

Mexico's economic outlook for 2025 presents a mixed picture. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to be modest, while inflation is anticipated to gradually decrease throughout 2025 and early 2026. Population growth, rising disposable incomes, and growing demand from tourism and restaurants are expected to drive consumption of both domestic and imported chicken meat. Chicken meat's affordability relative to other proteins is expected to be key driver of increased demand.

Production: Chicken meat production is forecast to rise two percent in 2025 to 4.1 million metric tons (MMT). Strong demand driven by population growth and sustained consumption from the Hotel, Restaurant, and Institutional (HRI) sector is expected to drive an increase in chicken meat production.

Consumption: Poultry consumption is forecast to rise three percent in 2025 to 5.1 MMT. Consumption per capita is expected to rise two percent as chicken meat is expected to remain the most affordable meat in Mexico and prices of other proteins such as pork and beef are less competitive.

Trade: Poultry imports are forecast to rise four percent in 2025 to 1.0 MMT. Rising domestic consumption is anticipated to boost imports in 2025. Poultry exports will remain limited due trading partner sanitary standards and robust domestic demand for chicken which reduces the availability of product for export.
Cattle signaling short-term lows

Cattle futures have bounced back from the recent long liquidation plunge driven by trade war concerns with strong gains the past two days. Yesterday’s close in April live cattle was the highest since Feb. 10. While the lead contract still holds a roughly $1.00 discount to last week’s average cash cattle price, price action the past two days suggests the panic selling has subsided for now.

US beef packers continue to slow cattle slaughter amid poor margins

Processing margins for beef plants have improved significantly but remain deep in the red. As a result, packers continue to slow slaughter rates, with plans for that to continue for the foreseeable future. Reduced slaughters limit packers’ need to actively pursue cattle in the negotiated market, pointing to more near-term cash cattle pressure.

USDA reports on Mexico livestock industry

Mexican cattle exports to the U.S. were temporarily halted from November 22, 2024, to January 31, 2025, following a New World screwworm ((NWS, Cochliomyia hominivorax) detection in southern Mexico. The export pause is expected to result in more available steers and heifers with export-quality characteristics, improving the overall quality of Mexico’s herd. In 2025, calf crop production is forecast to increase by one percent to 8.7 million head, supported by favorable conditions from the previous year.

Cattle exports, however, are expected to drop by 17 percent to one million head, with more cattle retained for domestic slaughter or replacements. Beef production is projected to rise one percent to 2.3 million metric tons (MMT) in carcass weight equivalent (CWE), while beef consumption is forecast to remain stable. Beef imports are expected to decrease by six percent.

The pig crop is forecast to rise one percent in 2025 to 22.4 million head, driven by reduced production costs, improved hog prices, and favorable pork prices. Pork production is forecast to rise two percent in 2025 to 1.6 million metric tons MMT CWE. Population growth and increased disposable incomes are expected to drive moderate consumption growth and increased slaughter. Imports are forecast to remain stable in 2025 at 1.5 MMT CWE. Imports are expected to continue at current high volumes driven by demand from the Hotel, Restaurant, and Institution (HRI) sector.

USDA reports on Brazil livestock industry

Cattle

• Brazil is the third-largest cattle producing country in the world.
• Post forecasts calf crop at 47.2 million head of cattle in 2025, a one percent decrease from 2024
  
• Post forecasts a one percent decrease in slaughter in 2025 following increased slaughter in 2024.
• Post forecasts the start of the reversion of the cattle cycle for 2025. Producers are likely to start retaining cattle, sending prices upwards, as a result of reduced calf availability.
• Brazil is no longer vaccinating against Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) and has started the process at WOAH for recognition as free from FMD without vaccination. Results are expected by the May 2025 WOAH General Assembly.
• Post forecasts live cattle exports at 515,000 head of cattle in 2025 due to cattle retention. Largest destinations are Türkiye, Iraq, and Egypt.

Beef

• Post forecasts Brazil will remain the second-largest beef producer and the largest exporter in the world. Brazil beef exports account for 28 percent of all beef exports globally.
• Production: Post forecasts a minor increase in 2025, reaching 11.9 million metric tons, following an eight percent increase in 2024, a year marked by increased slaughter.
• Consumption: Post forecasts a two percent decrease in 2025, reaching 8.1 million metric tons, consistent with the start of the reversion of the cattle cycle.
• Exports: Post forecasts a record year for exports in 2025, reaching 3.8 MMT CWE. This forecast considers beef production, strong external demand, devalued Brazilian real, and foreign competitors facing challenges.

Swine

• Pig Crop: Post forecasts a one percent increase in 2025, due to lower production costs, strong domestic demand, and strong foreign demand. · Slaughter: Post forecasts a 1.4 percent increase in 2025, reaching 46.67 million head.
• Pork Production: Post forecasts a two percent increase in 2025, reaching 4.7 million metric tons, as a result of increased slaughter, reduced feed costs, and investments made to increase production.
• Consumption: Post forecasts stable consumption in 2025 at 3.1 MMT CWE. Inflation on pork and pork products will likely impact consumption.
• Exports: Post forecasts a six percent increase in 2025, based on increased slaughter, firm external demand, increased purchases from new markets, export growth to existing consumers, and Brazil’s sanitary status versus its competitors who are facing challenges with animal disease, particularly Europe.

China suspends beef imports from six South American meat plants

China's General Administration of Customs (GACC) has suspended beef imports from six meat processing plants in Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay, following a safeguard investigation into beef imports initiated in December 2024. The exact distribution of affected plants by country remains unspecified, and no official reason for the suspension was provided. This action aligns with China's broader strategy to protect its domestic beef industry amid oversupply and weak demand. The suspension could significantly impact beef exports from the affected countries, particularly Brazil, which supplies approximately 43% of China's beef imports. The situation is evolving as the investigation continues, with the potential for further regulatory actions.

USDA Ag Outlook Forum assumptions for US protein

Cattle/Beef: Beef production for 2025 is seen at 26.6 billion pounds, down nearly 2%, as “tighter domestic feeder supplies are expected to constrain feedlot placements.” Beef exports are seen down 7% while imports are expected to hit 5.77 billion pounds, a 3% rise. The 5-area steer price is forecast to average $291 per cwt.

Hogs/Pork: Commercial production is forecast at 28.5 billion pounds, up 3% from 2024, with pork exports seen at 7.30 billion pounds, up 3% as “increased domestic production and continued strong international demand for pork is expected to support US exports.” Pork imports are seen at 1.17 billion pounds, up 2%. National base 51%-52% lean hog prices, live equivalent, are seen at $65 per cwt., a 3% rise from 2024. “Despite increased availability of hogs, prices will be supported by strong demand, both domestically and internationally, and higher beef prices.”

Broilers: Broiler production is seen at 47.1 billion pounds, up 1%, “on lower feed costs, higher prices for competing meats, and steadily increasing average live bird weights.” However, the rate of growth could be constrained by the smaller layer flock. Broiler meat exports are seen at 6.61 billion pounds, down 2%. National wholesale broiler price is seen at $1.32 per pound.

Dairy: Milk cow numbers are expected higher in 2025 versus 2024, with 0.3% growth in milk per cow production, output is seen at 226.9 billion pounds, up 0.5%. The incidence of HPAI in dairy cattle in California has declined at the start of 2025.

USDA unveils $1 billion bird flu plan to stabilize egg prices

USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins as expected announced a $1 billion initiative to combat highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and reduce egg prices. The plan, partially funded through spending cuts from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and reportedly funds from the Commodity Credit Corporation, includes $500 million for Wildlife Biosecurity Assessments at egg-laying facilities, $400 million for producer indemnification and farm repopulation efforts, and $100 million for vaccines and other solutions. USDA will deploy epidemiologists, expand biosecurity audits, and collaborate with the FDA on supply chain improvements. While vaccination remains under review, trade impact considerations will guide any implementation.

USDA confirmed the reports of Turkey sending eggs into the U.S.

USDA Chief of Staff Kailee Tkacz Buller told reporters, “We already have a couple countries who are interested. Turkey is a country that we already work with right now to import some eggs.”

The downside of the new plan is if it does not work, bird flu numbers could dramatically expand, pushing the topic into still major focus and boosting egg prices further.

USDA’s Rollins also urged the rollback of California’s “overly restrictive” Prevention of Cruelty to Farm Animals Act

The 2018 ballot measure (Proposition 12) that established minimum space requirements for egg-laying hens, breeding pigs and calves. The law bans California businesses from selling eggs from chickens that don’t meet the requirements — thus forcing both California farmers and out-of-state suppliers to conform to the law. Although in 2021 the law was challenged by the North American Meat Institute — which argued that it violated the Commerce Clause of the U.S. Constitution — the lawsuit was rejected by U.S. Supreme Court.

USDA weekly dairy report

CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (2/28) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $2.3450. The weekly average for Grade AA is $2.3480 (-0.0739). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.7800 and 40# blocks at $1.7750. The weekly average for barrels is $1.7945 (-0.0074) and blocks $1.8550 (-0.0494). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.2000. The weekly average for Grade A is $1.2065 (-0.0535). DRY WHEY: Extra grade dry whey closed at $0.5100. The weekly average for dry whey is $0.5280 (-0.0195).

BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: West region stakeholders note domestic butter demand as varying from moderate to steady. Central and East region stakeholders note domestic butter demand as somewhat stronger. Concerning export demand, some manufacturers relay butter demand from international buyers as very strong. Cream volumes have generally remained heavy throughout the country. Butter producers are busy running cream volumes through their churns and building stock for later seasonal demands. Bulk butter overages range from 12 cents below to 5 cents above market, across all regions.

CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Cheese production varies from steady to stronger across the U.S. In the East region, contacts relay strong milk availability and steady cheese production. Contacts share balanced cheese stocks. Some industry contacts note slight upticks in retail cheese demand. Cheesemakers in the Central region relay mixed demand, but most contacts share steady to stronger demand. Curd and barrel processors share production and demand are steady and inventories are balanced. Milk availability varies, but many contacts share milk volumes are strong and increasing. Spot milk prices range from $2.50 under Class to flat Class III. Contacts in the West share milk demand is strengthening as new production capacity comes online. Cheese production is trending steady to stronger. Contacts share demand from international buyers is mixed.

FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: Farm level milk output is increasing in the East and West regions. In the Central region, spot milk prices range from $2.50-under to flat Class III this week. Cheesemakers in the Central region say milk is somewhat tight, with availability varying by location. Demand for all Classes of milk is steady throughout much of the country, though Class I sales have slowed somewhat from the start of the year in the Central region. Cream is available throughout the country and cream handlers are working to find homes for stocks. Back ups persist at some butter plants in the Central region but have declined somewhat from last week. Condensed skim milk is becoming more available in the East and remains available in the West; contacts in both regions say demand for condensed skim is stable. Cream multiples for all Classes are 0.80 – 1.10 in the East, 0.60 – 1.08 in the Central region, and 0.50 – 1.05 in the West.

DRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: As the spring flush season begins to percolate, contacts in the industry are sharing concerns about how growing milk volumes will impact processors and trading in the U.S. The ninth week of the year has brought on more bears than bulls on the topic of most dry dairy ingredients markets. Steady to heavier supplies have been met with cautious, at best, demand in regards to nonfat dry milk (NDM), dry buttermilk, dry whole milk and dry whey markets. Those commodities all experienced price decreases this week, in every region. Lactose prices moved only slightly lower. Rennet and acid casein prices held steady. Whey protein concentrate (WPC) 34% markets continue to maintain a significant bullish resistance, as prices moved higher yet again this week.

INTERNATIONAL DAIRY MARKET NEWS

WEST EUROPE: Milk deliveries in England, Scotland, and Wales totaled 1.048 billion liters in January, up 2.2% from January 2024. Ireland's Central Statistics Office released the January 2025 Consumer Price Index, which rose by 1.9 percent overall from January 2024. The national average price of full fat milk per 2 liters was up 18 cents from January 2024. A large European dairy cooperative recently announced its March guaranteed milk price is 53.75 euros per 100 kg of conventional milk.

EAST EUROPE: The European Commission Combined Drought Indicator lists warning and watch drought conditions in pockets of East Europe due to precipitation deficits. Temperatures in early February were above seasonal averages for East Europe.

AUSTRALIA: According to Dairy Australia, January 2025 milk production, 708.2 million liters, was down 2.6 percent from January 2024. Milk production increased in New South Wales by 2.6 percent from a year earlier but declined in every other Australian state. The January 2025 Production Inputs Monitor report from Dairy Australia stated input costs increased in Australia during January.

NEW ZEALAND: Export data for January 2025 was recently released for New Zealand. This data showed a 45 percent increase in value for milk powder, butter, and cheese exported in January 2025 compared to January 2024. Fresh milk and cream export values were 13 percent higher in January 2025, when compared to a year earlier.

SOUTH AMERICA: Argentina and Brazil reported overall gains in 2024's total output, while Uruguayan milk output slid. Milk producers are bracing for increases in food costs. Dairy commodity trading activity is somewhat quiet as the final month of Q1 nears. Brazilian brokers relay logistical cost increases remain debilitating for stronger purchasing power, despite some recent strengthening of the Brazilian real.

US NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: Total conventional dairy ads increased in the week 9 retail ad survey by 21 percent and the number of organic ads grew 65 percent compared to week 8. Cheese is the most advertised conventional dairy commodity in this week's survey. The most advertised conventional cheese product is 6-8-ounce shred style this week. Yogurt is the second most advertised conventional dairy item this week. Total ads for conventional ice cream are up 31 percent in the week 9 retail survey.