Australian dairy exports expected to decline in 2024
USDA FAS post expects as 12.5% decline
13 December 2024
2 minute read
By: The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service post in Canberra forecasts fluid milk exports to reach 140,000 metric tons (MT) in 2025, a 12.5% decline from the revised estimate of 160,000 MT for 2024. This volume is significantly lower than the peak of 414,520 MT in 2021. The anticipated decline is largely driven by further reduced demand from Australia’s major export destination, according to a recent US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report.
In 2021 and 2022, China accounted for approximately half of all Australian fluid milk exports. Since then, Australia’s fluid milk exports have plummeted by an estimated 61%, primarily due to a sharp decline in demand from China. FAS/China forecasts a further drop in fluid milk imports from China in 2025, driven by an expected increases in domestic and UHT milk production. With relatively low milk
prices for Chinese dairy farmers, the country’s domestic production is expected to intensify competition for imported UHT milk. However, FAS/China anticipates continued demand for high-end UHT milk
products, such as A2 and organic milk, which could offer opportunities for Australian fluid milk exporters to mitigate the overall decline in exports to China.
Exports to other markets, including Singapore, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Hong Kong, have declined over the past year. However, the decreases have been modest, with the drop in shipments to China having the most significant impact on Australia’s overall fluid milk exports.
FAS/Canberra’s 2024 milk export estimate has been revised upward slightly to 160,000 MT, up from a previous estimate of 150,000 MT. This marks a substantial 23% decline from the 2023 export volume. As of January to September 2024, 123,800 MT of fluid milk have been exported. Historically, around 25% of annual exports occur in the final quarter, supporting the revised export estimate for 2024.
