Outlook for US cheese exports remains promising
The addition of new production capacity helpedThe outlook for US cheese exports in 2024 is promising, with exports through May already 28% higher than the same period in 2023, bolstered by global economic recovery and a significant price advantage against competitors in the first quarter of the year, according to a recent USDA Dairy World Markets and Trade report. The addition of new production capacity has helped boost export volumes.
Although relatively uncompetitive US prices might present challenges in the second half of the year, the overall outlook suggests that 2024 could be a record-breaking year for U.S. cheese exports.
Exports are forecast at 466,000 tons, an 8% increase from 2023. Shipments are expected to slow somewhat in the second half of the year, as a recent rally in cheese prices erodes US price competitiveness. US cheese prices hit $2.00/lb. in June and are forecast at $1.97/lb. in the third quarter and $1.93 in the fourth quarter.
Oceania cheese prices were $1.97 in July but are expected to moderate during the second half of the year.