US Beef Production Forecast Rises

The USDA’s recent World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report boosted beef production for 2015, based on a larger forecast of the slaughter of fed cattle in the second half of 2015, and heavier carcass weights, Sarah Mikesell reports.

The monthly supply and demand report was deemed moderately bearish for beef, according to Allendale, Inc. analyst Rich Nelson.

“It was not a surprise but was viewed in a negative light. The 2015 beef production forecast was increased by 245 million lbs over their previous estimate, to 23.859 billion. This was made due to the recent jump in kill numbers and weights,” Mr Nelson said.

“It sounds reasonable but their Q4 production estimate comes to 6.175 billion, up 2.6 per cent. With two weeks of Q4 done now, we have yet to hit that number. Does USDA not believe that the worst is behind us?”

Beef import forecasts were unchanged for 2015 and 2016. Beef exports for 2015 and 2016 were lowered as demand is projected to remain relatively weak.

Cattle prices for 2015 and 2016 were reduced from last month on current large supplies of market-ready cattle, weaker demand and competition from relatively large supplies of competing meats - read more.

In disease news, further outbreaks of Bluetongue have been reported across Europe in the past week, with ten more outbreaks in France, two in Hungary and two in Romania. – read more here.