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USDA Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook

21 January 2015

USDA Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook - January 2015USDA Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook - January 2015

Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook

Pork/Hogs: Information released in the December Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report shows that production effects of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea have abated. Breeding inventory increases and strong producer farrowing intentions portend pork production increases and lower hog prices in 2015. Hog prices are expected to average $60-$65 per cwt this year, almost 18 percent below prices in 2014. Pork exports were sharply lower in November, due in part to the strong exchange rate value of the U.S. dollar.

Beef/Cattle: Recent precipitation improves pasture conditions and prospects for heavier feeder and fed cattle into 2015. Cattle feeders could again experience negative returns as high feeder cattle prices adversely impact cattle feeding profit margins, and beef packers’ margins continue to reflect high fed cattle prices and retail pressure on wholesale

Beef/Cattle Trade: U.S. cattle imports are expected to have been 2.325 million head in 2014 due to rising shipments from both Canada and Mexico. U.S. beef imports continue to grow, especially from Australia. The beef import estimate for 2014 was raised to 2.928 billion pounds, which would be the highest total since 2007. U.S. beef exports were steady throughout 2014 and are expected to have been 2.584 billion pounds, nearly even with 2013.

Poultry: Broiler meat production in November showed a small decrease over the previous year, totaling 2.9 billion pounds, 1.0 percent less than the previous year, but production indicators suggest continued growth in the coming year. Total turkey cold storage holdings were 190 million pounds at the end of November, a decrease of 14 percent from a year earlier. The decrease was from lower cold storage holdings of turkey products. Turkey production in fourth-quarter 2014 is estimated at 1.5 billion pounds, an increase of 5.6 percent from the same period in 2013. Table egg production increased notably in November to 605 million dozen, up 2.7 percent from the previous year as strong prices during most of the fall encouraged producers to expand production. Over the last 2 months of 2014, egg prices in most markets experienced a brief and very sharp peak in prices, with prices in the New York market growing and then declining by around $1.00 per dozen.

Poultry Trade: Turkey shipments in November were up from a year ago, while broiler shipments and egg and egg product shipments were down compared with a year earlier. Broiler shipments totaled 569.2 million pounds in November 2014, a decrease of 9.3 percent from a year earlier. Turkey shipments increased 5.5 percent from a year ago, totaling 73.6 million pounds, while egg and egg product exports totaled 35.5 million dozen in November 2014, a 9.4-percent decrease from the previous November.

Dairy: The average all-milk price for 2014 was a record high of $23.97 per hundredweight (cwt), a 19.6 percent increase over the 2013 price of $20.05 per cwt. With recent declines in prices and changes in supply and use of dairy products, the all-milk price forecast for 2015 has been reduced to $17.75-$18.55 per cwt, a change from last month's forecast of $18.45-$19.25 per cwt.

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