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USDA Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook

17 June 2015

USDA Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook - 17 June 2015USDA Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook - 17 June 2015

Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook

HPAI Outbreaks in the Midwest Impact Poultry Markets

Poultry: Since the beginning of this year, the U.S. poultry industry has been confronted with multiple outbreaks of Highly-Pathogenic Avian Influenza, a virus lethal to poultry. To date, the heaviest incidence of the virus has fallen on table egg layers and on turkeys in Midwestern States. The virus has affected production, trade, and prices. Egg production has been forecast downward to reflect the impact of the outbreaks. The current outbreak of Avian Influenza (AI) has not significantly impacted the production of broiler meat. The primary impact of AI for the broiler industry has been in its export sector. Higher production and lower exports are expected to increase broiler supplies, raising cold storage holdings and placing downward pressure on prices. The turkey industry has seen AI impact both its production and exports. Both turkey production and export estimates have been revised reflecting the number of turkeys that have been culled and the number of full and partial trade restrictions than have been put in place.

Beef/Cattle: Falling beef prices and improved pasture conditions will likely intensify cattle producers’ summer grazing intentions. Improved pasture conditions will provide forage for the already low cow numbers, and fewer cows will be slaughtered. Improved pasture conditions will also provide a longer grazing season for feeder cattle, which will leave fewer cattle for placement in feedlots until the end of the grazing season this fall. Falling fedcattle and beef prices have led to negative cattle feeding and beef packer margins as consumers appear to be backing away from beef at its recent record prices.

Pork/Hogs: Second-quarter U.S. pork production is expected to be 5.9 billion lbs, almost 7 percent above a year ago, as the U.S. pork industry continues to recover from Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea (PEDv). Second-quarter hog prices are expected to average $54-$55 per hundredweight (cwt), about 36 percent below the second quarter of 2014. April pork exports were year-over-year higher for the first time since June 2014, as low U.S. prices offset some of the effects of high U.S. dollar exchange rates.

Dairy: Dairy export forecasts on a milk-equivalent, skim-solids basis have been raised to 38.7 billion pounds for 2015 and 39.5 billion pounds for 2016. Forecasts for milk production have been raised to 208.7 billion pounds for 2015 and 213.9 billion pounds for 2016. Annual forecasts for the all-milk price are $17.15-$17.55 per hundredweight (cwt) for 2015 and $17.45-$18.45 per cwt for 2016.

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