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USDA Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook

20 January 2016

USDA Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook - January 2016USDA Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook - January 2016

Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook

USDA’s supply and usage estimates for red meats, poultry, and eggs imply increases in quantities available for domestic disappearance in 2016, compared with last year. Disappearance is what remains after exports and ending stocks are subtracted from the sum of production, beginning stocks, and imports. Dividing this amount by the US population yields per capita disappearance. The forecast for increased per capita disappearance in 2016 derives largely from increased production forecasts. The increase in broiler disappearance however, reflects a slower pace of export recovery. Turkey and egg disappearance, in particular, is expected to recover from disease problems in 2015. In the aggregate, 2016 total red meat disappearance is expected to increase almost 1 percent, from 104.9 pounds per person, to 105.7 pounds. Total red meat and poultry disappearance is expected to increase more than 1 percent, to 213.6 pounds per person in 2016, compared with 210.9 pounds last year. U.S. per capita disappearance of red meat and poultry first exceeded 200 pounds in 1988.

Beef/Cattle: December ushered in frigid temperatures. Snow and flooding in the Southern Plains resulted in cattle deaths and limited transportation of live cattle to feedlots and packers, creating a short-term supply crunch despite light production schedules over the holidays, which supported rapidly rising wholesale prices. The recent precipitation aided wheat pasture conditions and helped replenish stock pond levels.

Beef/Cattle Trade: U.S. cattle imports were down 27 percent in November due to dramatic declines in beef shipments from Australia and New Zealand. Despite lower fourth-quarter beef shipments, U.S. beef imports for 2015 are forecast 14 percent higher at 3.372 billion pounds.

Pork/Hogs: Animal numbers reported in the December Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report imply a 2-percent increase in 2016 pork production. Live hog prices are expected to average $46-$49 this year. A small increase in U.S. live swine imports is expected as a consequence of the repeal of U.S. country of origin labeling laws.

Poultry: USDA has lowered its fourth-quarter production forecast of ready-to-cook (RTC) broiler meat to 9.98 billion pounds due to lower expected slaughter for December. Price forecasts for whole birds are increased for all quarters in 2016. The production forecast for 2016 is raised on stronger chick placement data. Turkey meat production in November totaled 471 million pounds, down 2 percent from a year earlier. Wholesale frozen whole hen prices averaged $1.30 per pound in fourth-quarter 2015, up 14 percent from the previous year. Table egg production totaled 548 million dozen in November, down 11 percent from a year earlier. Wholesale prices for Grade A large eggs in the New York market averaged $1.74 per dozen in fourth-quarter 2015, up 7 percent from the previous year.

Poultry Trade: Broiler, turkey, and egg shipments in November 2015 remained down from a year ago. Broiler shipments totaled 494 million pounds, a decrease of 14 percent from a year earlier. November turkey shipments decreased 41 percent from a year ago, totaling 43 million pounds, while egg and egg product exports totaled 19 million dozen shell-egg equivalent, a 47-percent decrease from the previous November.

Sheep/Lamb: Fourth-quarter 2015 commercial production of lamb and mutton is forecast at 36 million pounds, down nearly 5 percent from the same period in 2014.

Dairy: With lower expectations for exports, the all-milk price forecast for 2016 has been lowered to $15.35-$16.15, a reduction from the $15.95-$16.75 per cwt forecast last month. The milk production forecast for 2016 has been lowered by 0.6 billion pounds. Commercial export forecasts for 2016 have been lowered by 0.4 billion pounds on a milk-fat milk-equivalent basis and 1.0 billion pounds on a skim-solids milk-equivalent basis.

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